Friday, May 23, 2014

Daily Bullets……For May 23, 2014


·         New home sales rise……New home sales rose a healthy 6.4% in April, reflecting normal seasonal improvement but also some snapback from the impact of the very severe winter weather in most of the U.S. Given the recent softness in the housing market, sales of both new and existing homes are down 6.8% from a year ago.
What’s the point?  This is another in a series of recent positive readings for the housing market and has positive implications for the economy. It appears the housing market is beginning to accelerate, some of this, of course, is seasonal. We believe there is pent-up demand for housing based on new household formation; however, tight credit and structural changes in the labor markets have held back the recovery. We believe as employment continues to improve, the housing market should also gradually improve. We also believe there is improving likelihood of changes in bank regulations that could help to improve the housing market over the next year. Link: http://money.msn.com/business-news/article.aspx?feed=AP&date=20140523&id=17646348

·         Food inflation accelerating…..The USDA reported today that severe drought in California could have a lasting impact on fruit, dairy and egg prices, and that inflation in meat prices appears poised to continue.
What’s the point? Long-term weather patterns, namely drought conditions, appear to be having an increased effect on food inflation. This is somewhat of a concern because it could spark a move to higher inflation generally. While we believe the likelihood that food price inflation will result in significantly higher general inflation is low, we note there have been periods in our history where sectoral inflation stoked a rise in general inflation, partly due to change in “inflation psychology”. We believe the probability that food price inflation would spark higher general inflation in the near term is low for a variety of reasons including demographics trends, structural issues with the labor force, and excess global capacity. Link: http://money.msn.com/business-news/article.aspx?feed=OBR&date=20140523&id=17646363

 

 

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