Research Director Monthly Commentary for July/August

Time to Play Defense?

The stock market appears to be in a now familiar “recovery” pattern from the 12% correction it underwent in the January-April period of this year. As corrections go, 12% is “run of the mill”, about in line with the historic average for corrections of 13.3% decline. As we have said before, corrections such as this are quite normal and are, in fact, healthy for the market because they help to temper market excesses.  

Currently, there are some interesting internal dynamics going on in the stock market: hyper-growth stocks (or “FANG” such as Facebook, Apple, Netflix, Google) appear to be taking a breather after carrying the market for some time, in fact years. Some market pundits are of the opinion that if these hyper-growth stocks falter, it is a bad sign for the market. We disagree for several reasons: 1) there are many other sectors of the market, particularly industrial, financial and energy sectors, that have underperformed and we believe may be in a better position to take over market leadership; 2) we believe many of the hyper-growth stocks have strong long-term fundamentals and while as a group, could underperform for a period, they ultimately have superior long-term growth prospects which should help support their valuations (and stock prices) over time.

The bond market is currently in a defensive mode due to rising interest rates. Bond prices move inversely with interest rates and we expect the bond market to remain in a defensive mode for some time, thereby keeping total returns for bonds below the long term averages. We still need and use bonds for diversification purposes because bonds prices have historically risen when stocks decline, particularly in a bear markets. That said, we do expect returns on bonds to be below the long-term averages for the foreseeable future.

Do we see now as time to get defensive on equities? The answer is no. Underlying economic fundamentals remain excellent: employment is strong; workers’ incomes are rising; consumer and capital spending remain strong; and the tail winds of lower corporate tax rates and immediate expensing of capital investments should all help to sustain the current economic recovery much longer than many pundits currently project. All of this positive for corporate profits, which are the primary driver of stock prices. And with respect to concerns about the much-discussed Fed raising interest rates, we fully expect this will continue; however, we see it 1) as a positive because it is helping to normalize interest rates; 2) we believe the Fed will not accelerate rate increases; 3) the rate increases are sign of a healthy economy; 4) the Fed Funds rate is still well below the historic relationship to nominal GDP, which means monetary conditions are still no where near “tight”.

Concept of “inherent defense”………..So does this market analysis matter to your portfolio? Yes, primarily in the sense that as fiduciaries and managers of your money, we need to remain vigilant in monitoring market fundamentals as it pertains to investment strategy. But remember that your portfolio is diversified across nine asset classes, including three in equities and three in bonds. Holding multiple asset classes helps to mitigate portfolio volatility and deliver higher risk-adjusted returns. In addition, your portfolio is allocated across these nine asset classes in a way that provides necessary growth for your financial plan strategy while keeping risk to a minimum; in other words, if your financial plan shows that you can achieve your goal with a less aggressive allocation, we believe it is prudent to invest in the less aggressive allocation in order to mitigate portfolio volatility.

So, while we may not believe it is “time to play defense” with respect to equities, remember that our strategy of allocated portfolios, “due diligence” in the form of our quarterly investment strategy meetings, and quarterly rebalancing all act to provide a level of “inherent defense” in your portfolio that should help to mitigate risk and volatility when markets do become more turbulent.

 

Bob Toomey,

Vice President, Research

 

 

 

Q3 Investment Meeting Summary

We held our Q3 investment strategy meeting on June 27, 2018. At our meeting we were fortunate to have a prominent local bond portfolio manager, Dean Amundson, join us. Dean’s knowledge and experience provided us with extremely helpful insights into the current bond market.

One concern that has increased within the bond area is the flattening of the term structure of interest rates (also known as the “yield curve”) which has been occurring as the Federal Reserve raises its short-term inter-bank lending rate (the Fed funds rate). The concern is that if the Fed pushes this rate much above the yield on the 5 or 10 year Treasury note (now at 2.53% and 2.85%, respectively), it could create what is known as an inverted yield curve. An inverted yield curve has historically been associated with or preceded the last seven U.S. recessions, so a flattening yield curve raises alarm bells among stock investors.

We think the concerns over the flattening of the curve may be premature. There are several reasons for our thinking; 1) we think the Fed will be very reluctant to cause a yield curve inversion; 2) over time, higher growth rates and inflation expectations should result in some increase in long-term bond yields; 3) we believe the economy can function normally even if the yield curve remains flattish (but not inverted), i.e., a flattish yield curve should not necessarily constrain access to capital or shut down bank lending.

Given the fixed income background, we think equities can still do well as long as inflation remains moderate, which we expect, and corporate cash flow growth remains strong, which we also expect. One concern is that equity valuations may have peaked (the “as good as it gets” argument). We think there is room for further improvement in valuation based on what we believe will be 1) a longer-than-expected economic cycle thereby 2) supporting a sustained higher level of corporate cash flows. We expect stronger sustained corporate cash flows should result in rising dividends and share buy-backs, which increase the attractiveness of stocks.

With respect to changes in our investment models (and your holdings), we slightly reduced our allocation to equities primarily through moving to a slight underweight in international stocks from a previous overweight position. Within both U.S. and international equities, we continue to maintain a relatively balanced allocation to both value and growth. We continue to maintain targeted sector investments in three areas:  financial (XLF), health care (IHI), and the U.S. housing sector (ITB). We believe all three sectors still offer attractive growth potential. Within bonds, we continue to maintain our lowest possible allocation to long bonds and continue an overweight in short-maturity bonds as we believe this sector should actually benefit as short-term rates rise. Within intermediate bonds, we added a position in shorter-maturity floating rate bonds in order to further reduce overall duration of your bond holdings and thereby help to reduce portfolio volatility.

Have a happy and safe 4^th of July holiday !

Robert E. Toomey, CFA/CFP

Vice President, Research