The recovery in the stock market from the March 23 low
has surprised many people. How can the market go up when everything looks so
bad right now? The reason is the market is a “discount” mechanism, meaning it
will look forward as best it can and reflect in today’s current price what it
believes is the outlook for corporate profits say 6, 12, 24 months out. When
the market hit its March 23 low (down 38% from the February high), it most
likely pretty fully “discounted” the current recession. Conversely, the
market’s rise since March 23 most likely reflects investor consensus that the
economy and earnings should start to improve later this year and in 2021.
Morningstar data shows that since 1982, the top three performing sectors in the
one year following the end of a bear market are tech stock funds up 69%,
emerging market up 62%, and U.S. small cap stocks up 56%. This compares with
all U.S. stocks (aggregate) up 41% on average in the one year following the end
of a bear market.
The Cascade View
Monday, May 4, 2020
Wednesday, April 29, 2020
Client education really helps
One thing we have been doing actively over the past few
weeks is reaching out to clients to get a read on their state of mind with
respect to not only their health and well-being but also about concerns
surrounding their investment portfolios and financial plans. It has been
heartening that we have actually had very few who have expressed a high level
of anxiety about their investment portfolios. They have questions and concerns
of course, but we are not seeing a “panic” mentality to reduce equity exposure.
This is a good thing because we feel we have educated our clients in
understanding that a) market timing does not work and b) they should not
be overly concerned about their investment portfolios as long as they remain
true to the investment strategy and asset allocation developed from their
financial plan.
Monday, April 27, 2020
Poker champ's view on diversification
This weekend’s
Barron’s magazine ran an interesting article about Annie Duke, a world champion
poker player. Annie now provides consulting and coaching services to managers
in the financial services industry. Her insights into risk management under
uncertainty can be extremely valuable. I found it really interesting when asked
what she did with her money in this most recent financial crisis, her response
was “nothing, on purpose…..I kept my 65% equity, 35% fixed income allocation.”
She went on to explain that, as with winning in poker, one has to understand
where and when one can “outthink” other people. She understands that if you
don’t believe you have special expertise or can outthink the other guy, in this
case the market, you are much better off playing a “hand” you know will work.
In this case, Annie is making a reasoned “bet” that her 65-35 portfolio has the
highest “payoff” probability over time, rather than trying to time the market
which we know has a very low payoff probability.
Friday, April 24, 2020
Benefits of diversification
Yesterday I posted on
how market timing can materially reduce long-term investment returns. An
excellent way to eliminate the negative impacts of emotionally-based market
timing is through holding a portfolio that is diversified across several asset
classes. Case in point: a recent study by Morningstar looked at the last 20
years ending March 31, 2020 and showed that a diversified (60% equity, 40%
bond) portfolio achieved a total cumulative return of 176% compared with the
stock market (S&P500) return of 155%. Diversification worked by resulting
in lower portfolio drawdowns during market declines and allowing for faster
capital recovery in market uptrends. Moreover, the study shows that in highly
volatile markets like the last 20 years, diversification is important in both
preserving capital and delivering higher absolute and risk-adjusted return.
Bob Toomey, CFA/CFP
VP, Research
Thursday, April 23, 2020
Market timing can hurt investment returns
Volatile stock market
conditions like we have experienced lately can cause anxiety and induce people
to sell their stocks and wait for “a better time to invest”, in other words,
“time” the market. History shows there can be a big cost in attempting to time
the market. A recent Morningstar study shows that during the 20 years ending
December 31, 2019, if one remained fully invested in stocks, the average annual
return was 6.1%. If one missed the 10 best days of the market, the return
dropped to 2.2%. If one missed the best 20 days of market, the return was
actually negative, -0.13%. The point? Emotionally-driven market timing usually
fails and can have a material adverse impact on the success of one’s
investments and financial plan.
Bob Toomey, CFA/CFP
VP, Research
Friday, March 27, 2020
Commentary on our recent strategy changes
As
you know, this past Monday, we executed our strategic decision to concentrate more
of your assets in what we call “stalwarts”, or companies with the strongest
competitive and financial positions and which we believe are best positioned to
weather the current uncertainties and thrive upon a return to normalcy. We did
this for a couple of reasons: 1) increase portfolio concentration in higher
quality equities; and 2) be better positioned in stocks of the highest quality
as a protective measure if the COVID-19 outbreak and economic downturn are more
prolonged than we expect. Based on what we have seen so far, the strategy
appears to be working as we expected. During the three-day rally in the stock
market earlier this week, your equity positions fully participated in the rally
based on comparative indexes we looked at. This is encouraging and it appears we
are on the right track.
Looking
forward, while none of us can forecast the market in the near term, we believe
it’s probable that the stock market may remain volatile for a while and we
would not be at all surprised to see a retest of the market lows in the coming
weeks. History shows that sometimes these retests can take the market below the
previous low. That said, it is encouraging that the Federal Reserve, the CDC,
Congress, the President, and federal and state governments are all moving
swiftly and taking concerted actions to address the C-19 issues. It is within
this context of an economic slowdown and expected volatile markets that we made
the changes on Monday which we believe should provide the highest probability
of both capital preservation and a successful outcome when we come out on the other
side of this unprecedented event.
As
always, if you have questions or concerns, please do not hesitate to contact
us.
S.R.
Schill & Associates
Thursday, March 26, 2020
Summary of Our Deliberations
On
Monday March 23, 2020, we held the second segment of our Q2 investment strategy
meeting. Our deliberations focused primarily on determining the best manner in
which to implement our previously stated goal of positioning your portfolios in
assets we believe offer the strongest staying power and financial strength
through the recession we believe we are now in while also offering strong
recovery potential when things improve. What this means essentially is we have
taken actions to better concentrate your investments in ETFs containing the
highest quality stocks (we refer to them as the “stalwarts”) that we believe
have the strongest market positions, financial strength and sustainable cash
flows.
To
provide a little more detail on our changes to your portfolios, within
equities, we significantly boosted your concentration to large cap stocks
primarily within the technology and health care sectors of the economy while
reducing exposure to smaller cap stocks which are inherently less financially
secure. This change provides increased concentration within your portfolios in
“stalwart” companies like Microsoft, Apple, Amazon, Walmart, Costco, Merck and
Johnson & Johnson. You will see in your accounts additions of several new
ETFs that give us this exposure including the XLK (technology ETF), IHE (U.S.
pharmaceuticals ETF), and RTH (U.S. retailers ETF). To determine the best ETFs
to implement this strategy, we thoroughly analyzed the balance sheets and cash
flow strength of the top five companies in these ETFs to be sure we were
investing in companies with above average cash flow relative to debt. I would
also note that as part of our strategy process, we took the opportunity to
streamline or reduce the number of individual ETF holdings within the models.
This allows us to better concentrate your investments in the areas we believe
will serve us all best in the upcoming economic and market environment.
With
respect to your holdings within fixed income, we decided to concentrate for now
solely on U.S. Treasury notes and bonds, which are considered the strongest
bonds in terms of credit quality. We eliminated holdings within mortgage-backed
bonds, preferred stocks and high yield debt as we want at this time to
concentrate holdings in the highest quality credits. We are now overweight a
normal allocation in the long and intermediate maturity sectors within bonds,
and at a normal weight in short term bonds. In terms of portfolio macro
allocation, our actions reduced net equity exposure slightly, while increasing
fixed income exposure. Exposure to REITs and small cap stocks was also reduced.
Some
final thoughts…. This has been an unprecedented and turbulent time for all of
us. We have seen unprecedented volatility and the fastest decline by far into
bear market territory in history. Making forward-looking estimates of the
economy and corporate profits right now is probably more difficult than any of
us on the committee have ever seen in our careers. That is why we believe
investing more of your assets in blue chip “stalwarts” offers some risk
protection because of their strong business position and cash flows, and with
the extent of the downturn uncertain, we want to be in the strongest companies
financially. We did set an investment trigger, as we do at every meeting, that
would cause us to re-evaluate and most likely increase our equity exposure if
there was a new, positive development with respect to a medical treatment
or vaccine for COVID-19, or an indication that new cases were peaking or coming
down which would result in improved economic activity. We wish everyone the
best of health and stability in the forthcoming days.
S.R. Schill & Associates.
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